EURUSD held by 50 EMA on 1 hour chart

EURUSD held for now

After the weak PPI data out of Germany the EUR/USD is held by the 50EMA. See here for earlier post.

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EURCAD chart in focus part 2 - Intraday version

oooh part 2

Earlier I flagged up a swing trade into Thursday's rate decision. See here.

For those who would like something a little more short term/repsonsiveness here is the same trade with a slightly tighter entry parameter. By drilling down to the 1 hour chart there are some decent entires to be had. All should be self explanatory on the chart below. 

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Chart in focus: EURCAD daily chart.

EURCAD shorts in play

I like the EURCAD short on the daily chart going into the eurozone rate decision on Thursday. 

The eurozone is slowing and the data over the last few months have confirmed that. The probability of a rate hike next year is falling and only a 22.9% chance of a hike seen in September 2019. The ECB may have to formally push back the first rate hike with France suffering from the yellow vest protests and Germany only just avoiding a recession while Italy has probably entered one. Oh, and did I forget to mention Brexit concerns? Remember, they impact both the EU and Britain.

By contrast Cad is supported by global oil demand remaining stable, OPEC agreeing production cuts, and the number of US oil rigs at their lowest since around June 2018.

So, with the China data out of the way , with few surprises, I like EURCAD short. Stops can be placed above the 200EMA on the daily chart  (also S1) and 1.4905 can be targeted in recent daily support levels (and just above weekly pivot level). Trade parameters below.

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GBPUSD rejects R2 pivot on hourly chart. Next target 100 EMA

GBP retests R2 pivot point again

Earlier in the session, and before the poor UK retail sales, I highlighted the break away from the R2 pivot point on the hourly chart. Price re-tested it again and now has rejected the level with a bearish pin bar. Risk can be defined above the R2 pivot level and a target can be the R1 pivot level above the 100 EMA (blue line). See chart below. However, one caveat. The US traders are coming in as London traders are heading for lunch. One to check back in on at 1300GMT, but I will be off by then, so I wanted to flag it up as we have been following the GBPUSD for the session.

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GBPUSD: Retail sales heads up

Retail sales at bottom of the hour

Retail sales expected to fall during December, so we may see a drop on the release. Then, the 100 EMA looks interesting for a buy, or anywhere around 1.292o which is also the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart

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GBPUSD breaking through pivot point on hourly chart

Brexit madness as Plan 'B' heads onto view

It's a mess. Ok, markets rallied that a no-deal plan seemed less likely, but that was only because the whole deal May came up with was seen as unworkable (Not that anyone else could have easily done better). So, now the GBPUSD has nestled up to the 200 EMA on the daily chart and paused. 


For those traders expecting some more GBPUSD selling, price has just broken through the R2 pivot point on the 1 hour chart below (at 1.2953) and next target down would be just above the 1.2900 handle where I would expect buyers off the 100 EMA on a first test, as Greg would say. Well, you know what they say, imitation is the greatest flattery there is. 

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GBP/USD buyers take a peek above 1.29 again after defending near-term bullish bias

GBP/USD races to a high of 1.2911 before backing off the figure level

There wasn't any real notable headline for the spike from 1.2880 but buyers are just testing the waters once again in a move higher. Resistance and offers are seen around 1.2900-10 followed by the 1.2925-30 level. Of note, the 100-day MA also provides daily resistance @ 1.2890 so that will be another level to watch out for as well.

The pound continues to consolidate above the 100-hour MA (red line), which it tested earlier and buyers held out, but below the 1.2900 handle for now. I would expect quiet optimism in the coming sessions for the quid with Theresa May still biding her time in coming up with a "Plan B" on Brexit by Monday.

As long as price holds up above the key hourly moving averages, it feels like it's only a matter of time before a firm break above 1.2900 comes into play. Remember, markets are feeling more upbeat that chances of a no-deal Brexit outcome is diminishing so that could help feed into further gains in the pound for the time being despite silence from No. 10 right now.

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USD/CAD backs off slightly following attempt to get above the 1.33 handle

First attempt fails after price hits a high of 1.3309 then backs off

Price climbed above the key hourly moving averages in Asian trading today and weaker risk sentiment is only helping to fuel a move higher on the day. Oil is trading lower by 0.7% and that's also helping to add a bit of pressure on the loonie.

Despite buyers establishing a more bullish near-term bias, price is now running into resistance from the 1.3300 handle with offers lying around the region as well. The 14 January high @ 1.3298 also helps to act as a resistance level for sellers to lean on.

Looking at the daily chart, price is also encountering daily resistance from the July high @ 1.3290 with further resistance seen around 1.3320-27. But if anything else, given the period of consolidation we saw earlier and with a focus towards softer risk sentiment, a break of the 1.3300 handle will be a good platform for buyers to build on in the coming sessions.

If price manages to crack above 1.3327, that'd be an even better signal for further upside extension. For now though, buyers are in-charge in the near-term but further upside isn't really a home run just yet as the 1.3300 handle keeps a lid on price action so far today.

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AUD/USD sellers look to exert control by capitalising on weaker risk sentiment

AUD/USD threatens a firm break below the 100-day MA

Sellers managed a marginal close below the 100-day MA (red line) yesterday but I wouldn't consider it a real break just yet since price is still very much hugging the technical level. But as risk sentiment remains weak as we begin the European morning, we're seeing a further move to the downside in the pair as price threatens to move further away from the 100-day MA.

A firm break below the level would put sellers back in the driver's seat and look for a move back towards 0.7000 in the big picture. But first thing's first, sellers will have to navigate through support seen around 0.7144 followed by the 0.7100 handle for now.

Markets are now putting a renewed focus on China and the global economic slowdown - not helped of course by poor Chinese trade data on Monday - and it is pushing the aussie and kiwi lower this week.

As sellers look to exert their control by extending the downside momentum, the bias for the pair is starting to turn more bearish now. The trading landscape in the pair - and risk assets - to start the year suggests that we're unlikely to see a prolonged directional break (like the continuous downtrend last year), so it's all about adapting to what the market and what the technical levels say.

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USD/CAD pares earlier losses as oil slips a little alongside stocks

USD/CAD is back to flat levels on the day

Oil is slipping back further into negative territory on the day, down by 0.5% now to $51.85 as European equities moved lower earlier as well. That's helping to see USD/CAD move higher as price turns flat on the day while still sitting between the two key hourly moving averages.

Buyers are still finding it difficult to move above the 200-hour MA (blue line) and failure to do so is stopping the pair from finding a near-term break higher.

There's also daily resistance from the July high @ 1.3290 that's helping to cap the upside momentum for now. However, sellers aren't really in the driver's seat either. Price is barely able to find its way back under the 100-hour MA while the 100-day MA @ 1.3192 is still helping to limit a move to the downside since last week.

The latter is the key level that sellers will have to break below in order to extend a move to the downside. For now though, the 100-hour MA @ 1.3255 and the near-term trendline support around 1.3250 will help to act as support levels followed by the 1.3225-30 region.

Movement in USD/CAD as of late has been tied heavily to oil and with oil prices still left stranded just above the $50, it's not helping to give much directional movement to the loonie as well. As it stands, a technical break on either side of the 200-hour MA or the 100-day MA would signal the next directional move in USD/CAD. Until then, ping pong away.

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