EURUSD looks to test swing area support at 1.0766-77

Swing lows going back to February 2020

The EURUSD on the daily chart, has had a number of swing lows come in the area of 1.0766 to 1.0777 area (see red numbered circles on the daily chart below). The price low 

has moved to test the topside of that range.  

Swing lows going back to February 2020

The area represents a key level for both buyers and sellers.  Risk focus traders may look to sick a toe in the water against the level with hopes of a rebound (with a stop below).  Sellers who have been more dominant since the peak yesterday, want to see that area broken and remain broken. 8 daily bar has not close below the level since March 23 (although there was a move below on April 23 and April 24).

Drilling to the hourly chart, the swing high price from yesterday stalled near a swing area between 1.0886 – 96 along with the 50% retracement of the move down from the May 1 high to the May 7 low (at 1.0892). Since then the price action has seen a decay through the it's 200 hour moving average (green line), 100 hour moving average (blue line). And in today's trading the price fell below a upward sloping trendline and a swing area near 1.0781 – 84.

That last area has seen consolidation above and below as the daily support comes into play. Traders are showing some apprehension as a key support area is tested. 

EURUSD on the hourly chart



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USD/JPY eases to session low, closes in on key near-term levels under 107.00

USD/JPY slips to a low of 106.98 on the day

USD/JPY H1 13-05

The overall risk mood remains more tepid on the session, with European equities still keeping softer down by around 1.5% to 2.0% currently. Meanwhile, US futures are also staying near flat levels and looking skittish in European morning trade so far.

The dollar is also a little mixed across the board as it is keeping a little higher against the euro but is losing ground against the loonie and aussie at the moment.

For USD/JPY, price is also stretching a little lower as we see sellers start to close in on a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 106.96.

Keep above that and the near-term bias stays more bullish but break below and the bias will turn more neutral instead, paving the way for sellers to test the 50.0 retracement level @ 106.88 and the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 106.76 next.

It is hard to extrapolate much from the risk mood so far today, and major currencies are also showing little poise in general to break out in a meaningful way - for now at least.

As such, pay attention to the technical levels for now as they may offer some insight into price action and how the market is going to progress later in the day.



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EURUSD tests 200 hour MA and 38.2% retracement

On Friday, the MA (and trend line) stalled the rally.

The EURUSD is of testing its 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement at 1.0862-64 area.  Recall that on Friday the price tested the 200 hour moving average and topside channel trendline, only to find willing sellers against the risk defining levels. 

On Friday, the MA (and trend line) stalled the rally.

The combination today also provides a lower is trading opportunity for those looking to sell the EURUSD.   If momentum increases on a move above, I would expect stops to be triggered with the 50% retracement at 1.0892 as the next upside target. 



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Dollar falls across the board as equities nudge highe

The greenback slips to its lows for the day

US futures are now in positive territory, with S&P 500 futures up by 0.2% and European stocks are also picking up some green as the market shifts to be a little more risk positive ahead of North American trading.

In the currencies space, that is seeing the dollar fall across the board as EUR/USD now moves to a high of 1.0837 and AUD/USD has climbed back above the 0.6500 handle.

AUD/USD H1 12-05

It has been a rather choppy start to the week as the risk mood remains skittish but equity bulls are certainly not going to give up without a fight it seems.

It's still a bit early to be calling for a protracted risk-on mood in the session ahead but this is a good turnaround for risk trades, after having seen US futures been down 0.8% earlier.

For AUD/USD, this turns the focus back on the 100-day moving average:

AUD/USD D1 12-05

Let's see how Wall Street will take all of this in later in the day.



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USDCAD tests a cluster of topside risk levels

Oil him and himhour MAs and swing area is being tested

The 1.3999-1.4003 swing area are being tested. The 38.2% of the move down from the high last week at 1.40033. The 200 hour MA at 1.4009. The 100 hour MA at 1.40187 are all lined up as forming a cluster of resistance. The high for the day reached 1.40136 and have found sellers who are willing to lean against the risk area (with a stop above).  

Oil him and himhour MAs and swing area is being tested

Drilling to the 5 minutes chart below, if the level area is able to hold, we could see a rotation back down toward the 1.3972-76 area. That is home to the the 38.2% of the trend leg higher today. The swing low off the high today reached to 1.3976 and the price bounced. 

The question going forward from here is "Will that 2nd wave of buying get through the cluster of topside resistance including the 200 and 100 hour moving averages?"  If it can, full steam ahead. If it can't, rotation back down through the 38.2% retracement is possible.

USDCAD on the 5 minute chart



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AUD/USD falls to fresh session lows under 0.6500, closes in on key near-term levels

AUD/USD extends its decline as the dollar holds firmer still

AUD/USD H1 11-05

The aussie continues to back away from a challenge of its 100-day moving averageagainst the dollar, as price now falls under 0.6500 to a low of 0.6486 in European trading.

Risk tones are shifting to be more pessimistic now as we see European stocks extend losses with US futures also down by about 0.5% on the day currently.

That is putting pressure on the aussie and underpinning the dollar so far today.

AUD/USD is now approaching support from its key hourly moving averages around 0.6473-76 and that will be a key area to watch out for in the session ahead.

Keep above that and the near-term bias stays more bullish. Break below and the near-term bias will then turn more bearish instead.

The market is certainly looking skittish today as wee see the flip flop in risk sentiment. But again, it was the same case when we approached the 61.8 retracement level for the S&P 500 index previously so that remains one of the key risk barometers in my view.

For some context:

SPX

That and the key daily moving averages will be key topside levels to watch if risk is to truly find conviction for a solid run higher this week. So, keep an eye out for that.



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Cable falls to session lows as sellers seize near-term control again

GBP/USD falls under its 100-hour moving average, extends to the downside

GBP/USD H1 11-05

The dollar is keeping slightly higher on the session currently, and that is pushing cable lower as we see sellers seize back near-term control of the pair.

The move to the downside saw price fall below 1.2400 and more importantly the 100-hour MA (red line) and that means sellers have now established a more bearish bias again.

The topside move at the end of last week stalled at the 50.0 retracement level before falling back under the 200-hour MA (blue line) as sellers leaned on the confluence of those resistance levels to 'stay in the game'.

And right now, price action is siding with them as we see cable ease lower to session lows of 1.2361 on the day. The risk for sellers can clearly be defined by the 100-hour MA and the 1.2400 handle for now.

But any further downside extension needs to break minor support around 1.2355-60 first before potentially revisiting last week's low of 1.2266 next.



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EURUSD peeks above its 100 hour moving average and backs off

Marginal moves since the report

The reaction in the EURUSD was relatively modest. The high price on the current hourly bar reached 1.08513 with the low at 1.08246.  Only about 26 pips on a number of -20M jobs.  That ain't alot.

Marginal moves since the report_

Technically, the moved to the upside did peek above its 100 hour moving average at 1.08421. The prices back below that moving average. The last time the price closed above it was back on May 4. If the price can extend back above the 100 hour moving average we should see further upside probing with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 1 high at 1.08623 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.08705 as upside targets. A move above the 200 hour moving average would open the door for further upside momentum.

For now, however, the sellers are more in control below the 100 hour moving average. Stay below, and  the swing area at 1.0808 – 15 is the next downside target (see red numbered circles and lower yellow area). Yesterday, the price last corrected up to the level and fell to the days lows at 1.0766 before rebounding back above the area with momentum in the New York session. Today's earlier session lows stalled ahead of that area which was a bullish play. Sellers need to take out that swing area to tilt the bias more to the downside.



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USD/CHF ping pong continues, near-term price action back in focus now

USD/CHF still largely trading between 0.9600 and 0.9800 since April

USD/CHF D1 08-05

With the dollar keeping weaker and the SNB also intervening strongly to limit the franc strength, the pair has somewhat been respecting key technical levels rather well recently.

Any upside move appears to fall short of firmly breaking the 0.9800 level with the 200-day MA (blue line) also stepping in as a key resistance level, as seen with the rejection yesterday.

Meanwhile, any downside move has so far stalled at 0.9600 with support from the 23.6 retracement level @ 0.9597 helping to give buyers an area to lean on as well.

But now with price backing away from the 200-day MA, the focus switches back to the near-term chart instead:

USD/CHF H1 08-05

Notably, price is now moving towards a test of the key hourly moving averages at around 0.9705-13. Keep above and the near-term bias is more bullish but break below that region and the bias turns more bearish instead.

Just under that region, there is the 100-day moving average at 0.9691 so a break below that level will also see sellers gather more control in driving price back lower again.

Looking back to the daily chart, we can see that a triangle pattern is forming as price action continues to play ping pong between the 0.9600 and 0.9800 levels.

A daily break outside the triangle pattern will be a good start for either sellers or buyers to firmly seize control of the pair, with a breakout away from either the 0.9600 and 0.9800 level set to represent the next key trending move for traders to go along with.



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Dollar holds its ground in quiet trading so far

The dollar is not losing further ground in European morning trade

GBP/USD H1 08-05

The dollar index is back to near unchanged levels on the day as the greenback is holding its ground amid quiet trading in Europe so far today. Again, just be aware that London markets are closed and we do have the US non-farm payrolls report still to come later.

Notably, EUR/USD is keeping under its 100-hour moving average to trade near unchanged levels now around 1.0820-30 while AUD/USD is off earlier highs to 0.6510 levels, backing off from a test of the 100-day moving average.

For cable, the story is kind of the same as EUR/USD as seen in the chart above.

Price action is keeping under the 1.2400 handle but notably also after the upside move stalled at the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.2402 currently.

That remains the key line in the sand for any further upside move in the sessions ahead.

Keep below and the near-term bias remains more bearish. Break above that and the bias turns more neutral with the battle shifting towards territory between the 100-hour



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