GBPUSD up and down day. Ceiling set.

Swing area at 1.24047-14 defines a ceiling area for the GBPUSD

The GBPUSD spiked higher after the BOE decision earlier today. The move to the upside was able to extend above the most recent trend line on the hourly chart below but stalled right around a swing area at 1.24047 to 1.2414 area. The high price stalled at 1.2416 and backed off. 

Swing area at 1.24047-14 defines a ceiling area for the GBPUSD

The move lower has now reached 1.2324 in the current hourly bar. In the process the price moved below the close price from yesterday at 1.2340. We currently trade at 1.2346 up marginally on the day. 

The Asian session low came in at 1.2308. There is swing low targets just below the 1.2300 level (at 1.2297 – 99). Those are the next targets on the downside. Below that it would be the April 21 swing low at 1.22465.

The pair trades off lows and off highs. But what we know is if I were to characterize a close ceiling for the GBPUSD, it would be at 1.24047-14 area. The 100 hour moving averages moving toward that area as well which should further define the bias. Stay below the ceiling/moving average and the bears are more in control. There is closer resistance on the hourly chart and the 1.2385 – 93 area. The old trendline cuts across around that area as well.

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USD/JPY climbs to session high, moves towards test of key near-term levels

USD/JPY stays more upbeat on the session, moves to a high of 106.48

USD/JPY D1 07-05

Amid the better mood in the equities space today, buyers are putting up a bit of a defense at the 106.00 handle - leaning on the figure level and trendline support to prop up the pair back towards the 106.50 level currently.

For buyers, moving back above the 50.0 retracement level @ 106.45 on the daily will be a key victory ahead of the end of the week and may also help to provide yen pairs with some support across the board.

The move higher today puts the focus back on near-term levels for now:

USD/JPY H1 07-05

Notably, price is moving towards a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 106.56 with the 200-hour MA (blue line) not far away @ 106.72.

Those will be key levels to watch - alongside a potential daily close above 106.45 - should buyers try to chase a further upside move in the coming sessions.

Meanwhile, downside support is seen closer to 106.00 and it will be important for buyers to defend the key near-term levels pointed out above to keep a more bearish bias.

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GBPUSD trades to new session lows

Takes out London morning session low at 1.2357

The GBPUSD is trading to a new session low after falling below the London morning session low at 1.2357. The price has reached 1.2347.

Takes out London morning _session low at 1.2357

Technically, the move to the downside today got started after the day's high stalled right at its 200 hour moving average (see green line in the chart above). The move to the downside took out swing support at 1.2385-88.  The corrective low off of the London session low did reach up to 1.23926, but could not sustain momentum.  The last two hourly bars have seen the price rotate lower with increasing momentum.

The risk now for shorts is up at the 1.2385 – 88 area. It would be great for the sellers to keep the pressure on below the 1.2357 London morning low. That is close risk now.

On the downside, the pair is entering the lower choppy trading from April 21 to April 24. The 1.2300 area was a interim support floor that would be a target for further selling momentum now.

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EURUSD moves to the lowest level since April 24 today

Bounces into resistance area on the hourly chart

The EURUSD moved to the lowest level since April 24 and in the process fell below a swing area in the 1.0808 to 1.0815 area.  The price stalled randomly at 1.0781.   The price correction off the low has moved the pairs price up toward that resistance area. The high moved to 1.0819 – above the 1.0815 high level. However the price has move back below.

Bounces into resistance area on the hourly chart

The trading question is can this area now find sellers. If so a rotation back lower with the downward sloping trendline as a target would be eyed. Another swing area at 1.0755-63 would be targeted. The low from April reached 1.07265,

If the price starts to trade with more momentum above 1.0815, a rotation back toward the 1.0832-40 would be eyed. The 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April 24 low is in that area at 108.379.  

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, there have been 5 days in 2020 where the price traded below the 1.0755 – 768 area (see red shaded areas). Getting below that area – and staying below – would be more bearish on the daily chart.

EURUSD on the daily chart

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AUDUSD stays below topside technical resistance

The 61.8% retracement holds support today

The AUDUSD fell below the 200 hour moving average and upward sloping trend line on Friday. . That was a bearish move in what was a trend a lower. It took the pair below the next key target levels.

The 61.8% retracement holds support today

Today, the price opened lower and extended toward the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April 21 low at the 0.63736 level. After retesting that retracement level, the price has moved higher into the New York session. The high price for the day in the early New York session, did find resistance against the underside of the broken trend line and the 200 hour moving average currently at 0.64362 (both are moving higher).  

The holding of those technical levels on the corrective move higher today, solidifies them as topside resistance. You can also argue that the 61.8% retracement at 0.63736 at the lows of trading today, is just as strong on the downside as support.

We currently trade between those levels at 0.6410. That is right around the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 21 low. There is also a swing area going back to April 20, April 23, April 24, on Friday and again today (see green numbered circles). That needs to be broken and stay broken to give sellers more confidence.

Right here, the buyers and sellers are battling it out intraday with the sellers holding a slight advantage at the 50% area, and below trend line and 200 hour MA. 

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GBPUSD continues the chop lower in early week trading

Trades in a downward channel

The GBPUSD continues to chop lower in the early week trading. The price opened below the 100 hour MA (at 1.24848) and fell below a trend line (and apart from a little peek above stayed below) and tested than broke below the 200 hour MA (green line currently at 1.24273). 

Trades in a downward channel

The price waffled above and below the 200 hour MA over the last 5 hours of trading, and in the process respected a lower channel trend line and swing area at 1.2406-139.  There is other support targets on the hourly chart at the 61.8% at 1.23977 and a swing area at 1.2385-88.  

The price is lower but trades in an area where there are a lot of road blocks.  

Intraday,selllers are more in control, but a move above the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement  at 1.24445 (with more momentum) should worry some of the shorts and lead to more upside probing.

On the downside, the lower channel trend line and swing areas (down to 1.23851) are targets to get to and through below. Falling below, gets the pair through most of the downside roadblocks in the way.  

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The EURUSD corrects lower today after test of daily moving averages on Friday failed

Stall in London has been at a Thursday swing low

The EURUSD moved above the 100 day MA at around the 1.10008 level on Friday and extended up to a high of 1.10181 (that is the average today - see top blue line on the chart below). The price also extended above a topside trend line.   The run higher on Friday fell short of the higher 200 day MA at 1.10315 (today's value).  The extension higher and above technical levels failed. 

Stall in London has been at a Thursday swing low

Today, the price opened lower from Friday's closing level at 1.0975. The high today reached 1.09726. That was right around the Thursday high and a Friday swing lows at 1.0870-72 area.  The ceiling was in and the price rotated lower.

In the London morning session, the low for the day reached 1.09229. A swing low from Thursday reached 1.09201.  That area is the next target to get to and through. 

On a break, the 1.0896 to 1.09067 is home to a number of levels including:

  • Swing highs going back to April 16 to April 20. On Thursday, the price raced above that level and did not look back

  • The 38.2% of the move up from the April 24 low at 1.09067

  • The rising 100 hour MA at 1.09032.

That area should attract buyers on the first look.

Meanwhile, we currently trade within the London range with 1.09485 as the high and 1.09229 as the low (the current price is between those levels at 1.0933).  The market is looking for the next shove below 1.09201, or above the 1.09485. For now, the chop is on between those levels with sellers trying to take back more control, but not able to run too far (for now).   

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USD/JPY tests next key support as dollar remains weak

USD/JPY runs into the 50.0 retracement level of the recent swing move higher back in March

USD/JPY D1 29-04

That level sits at 106.45 and will be a key daily support to watch before a potential drop back towards 105.00 next in the pair. The shove lower comes as the dollar is continuing to stay weaker across the board in European morning trade.

Despite some recovery in the dollar late yesterday, the fact that USD/JPY failed to reclaim 107.00 continues to give sellers the advantage from a technical perspective.

And so far, sellers are continuing to keep up the momentum in trading today.

The mood in equities is still more or less the same with European stocks holding mild gains with US futures up by around 0.7% currently. Meanwhile, the bond market is telling a different story with US 10-year yields down by about 2 bps to 0.593%.

For now, the daily support at 106.45 will be key for USD/JPY sentiment. A firm run below that will see little in the way of stopping a move back towards 105.00 potentially.

The risk for sellers is if buyers start to chase a move back above 107.00.

Looking ahead, the Fed will be the key risk event to watch today so let's see if there will be more market clarity once that is over and done with.

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EUR/USD buyers show poise but topside break still found wanting

EUR/USD rises to a session high of 1.0868 but buyers need to do more

EUR/USD H1 29-04

Dollar weakness remains a key theme to start the session and that has helped EUR/USD climb to a high of 1.0868 before easing back a little.

Price action is sitting above both the key hourly moving averages today and that suggests the near-term bias in the pair is more bullish. However, buyers still have more work to do.

The key resistance region around 1.0880-00 is still proving to be a stretch too far and that is limiting any real topside break in the pair as seen with trading yesterday.

As such, unless buyers can work their way through that, any further trending move to the upside will remain limited for now.

The risk mood is a little bit all over the place to start the session as US futures eased slightly before firming once again to keep around 0.8% gains currently.

However, European stocks are a little more iffy with the DAX near flat levels now after holding around 0.4% gains at the open earlier. Meanwhile, the bond market still isn't biting as 10-year Treasury yields are down by 1.3 bps to 0.60%.

The flows are increasingly tricky amid some month-end rebalancing as well but perhaps there will be more clarity once we hear from the Fed later on today.

For now, while the near-term push is siding with euro buyers, any real topside momentum is still found wanting as the resistance region around 1.0880-00 is still holding up.

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USD/JPY pressing towards the resistance zone near 108.00

USD/JPY has topped out here for a week

USD/JPY has topped out here for a week

USD/JPY has lulled everyone to sleep with a sideways chop for the past week but it's often the quietest markets that deserve the most attention. 

The lower end of this range has been tested many times as well.

If you zoom out and look at the daily chart, there's been a period of massive volatility followed by extreme uncertainty. This is going to break one way or the other and the trade will be to go with it.

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