EURUSD higher but chops in the meat of the 5-day range

100 hour MA holding support?

If you look at the last 5 days of trading for the EURUSD, the lowest low was at 1.08114, and the highest high reached 1.09041.  That is less than 100 pips for the period (93 pips).  Moreover, there have been three tests of the high (between 1.0896 and 1.0904 – see green numbered circles) and three tests of the lows (between 1.0811 and 1.0816 – see red numbered circles).  Yesterday, the low extreme was tested. On Monday, the high extreme was tested.  

100 hour MA holding support?

Today we are trading higher on the day but in the meat of the 5 day range.  However, the buyers are trying to make more of a play with support buyers seemingly leaning against the 100 hour MA and the upward sloping trend line from yesterday. That support comes in at 1.08573 currently (and moving higher). Stay above and the buyers are more in control. Move below and that idea is flawed.  

On the topside there is a flattish trend line at 1.0889, but the better targets are the 200 hour MA at 1.08945 and the swing high area from 1.08961 to 1.09041 (in between is the 50% retracement).  

With a range for the last 5 days at 93 pips, traders are searching for the next shove. The extreme levels are in. We sit in the meat of the range with a positive bias today above the 100 hour MA.  The levels are defined.  Will the market keep the bullish tone and give the shove needed?  



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EUR/USD extends climb as dollar keeps weaker on the day

EUR/USD rises to a session high of 1.0885

EUR/USD H1 22-04

The dollar is continuing to keep softer on the session, as we see EUR/USD rise to a high of 1.0885. Cable is also up nearly 100 pips on the session to 1.2385 currently.

In the case of EUR/USD, price is starting to break free of the 100-hour MA (red line) and the near-term trendline resistance as buyers eye the 200-hour MA (blue line) next.

There is a couple of minor resistance points to also look out for around 1.0897-06 so just be mindful about that alongside the 200-hour MA @ 1.0895.

That said, I would still regard the latter as the key near-term level to watch right now.

As price action sits in between the key hourly moving averages, the near-term bias is more neutral. As such, the next directional move will come from a break on either side of that.

For now, risk is faring better on the day with US futures still up by just over 1%. That is keeping the dollar slightly softer, but let's see if there will be any more oil jitters or other events later in the day that could mess up the picture.



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USD/CHF remains caught in a bind, stuck between key technical levels

USD/CHF maintains a narrow trading range of 22 pips today

USD/CHF D1 22-04

The pair is trading little change on the day now, around 0.9691 as price action continues to be caught in a bind between key technical levels.

Any topside is encountering resistance from the 100-day MA (red line) @ 0.9706 with the 61.8 retracement level @ 0.9720 also helping to provide an area for sellers to lean on.

And so far, that is capping any topside momentum in the pair over the past few sessions.

Meanwhile, downside momentum is limited based on key levels in the near-term chart:

USD/CHF H1 22-04

Buyers have been defending the 100-hour MA (red line) over the past few sessions with a near-term trendline support also developing, helping to add another layer of support.

The 100-hour MA can be seen @ 0.9687 currently.

As such, the pair is basically caught in between resistance around 0.9706-20 and support around 0.9680-87 for the time being. Looking at the near-term chart, there is also further support closer to 0.9667 in the form of the 200-hour MA (blue line).

This is the key battleground for USD/CHF right now. Both buyers and sellers are holding their ground but eventually, something's gotta give.



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EURUSD tests a swing lows from last week, and finds risk defining buyers

Risk defining buyers leaning on the 1st test

The EURUSD moved to a new session low at 1.08155 as dollar buying is dominated in trading today. 

That low stalled between the swing lows from last week at 1.08114 and 1.08162. Risk defining traders leaned against the levels and have pushed the price back higher in hopes the 3rd low in the area holds support, and a corrective move higher began.  

I would suspect that if the low from last week at 1.0814 is broken, the dip buyers will turn to sellers and traders would start to think in terms of breaking 1.0800 and then making a run toward the April 3 and 6th lows at 1.0772 and 1.07676 respectively.

Risk defining buyers leaning on the 1st test_

What is risk for shorts now?

The pair's move lower today was able to get below swing levels at 1.08404, 1.08347 and 1.08293 (see red horizontal lines in the chart above).  Admittedly the price action around those levels was very choppy as the market fumbled with the idea of which way to go.  

I would expect, nevertheless, that should the price move back above each of those levels - with 1.08404 as the most important - the buyers would feel more confident, and the sellers would look to cover some shorts.  Stay below, however, and the sellers remain more in control.

We are currently trading above the 1.08293 level as buyers try to make a play off the lows. However the key 1.08404 level still looms above.



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GBPUSD fall continues in early NY trading

Trades at new session low.

The GBPUSD fall today is continuing in early New York trading with the pair reaching to a new session low and below the 1.2300 level. The pair is trading at its lowest level since April 8th.  The GBP is just behind the NZD as the weakest currency of the day.  

Trades at new session low.

Looking at the daily chart above, last week the price rise stalled right at the 200 day moving average at 1.26459 currently (green line in the chart above).  The price today moved further away from the 50% retracement at point of the range since December 2019 at 1.24611. 

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pair is testing the swing low from April 8 at 1.2286 area. A move below the 1.22819 (swing area) would open up the door for further downside momentum with the swing low from March 31 at 1.22395 as the next downside target.  Other levels below would be the April 3 low at 1.22024 and the April 7 low down at 1.21616.

Close risk for sellers now comes in at a swing area around 1.2325 -29 area, and then the underside of the broken trend line at 1.23422 (and moving lower). The price over the last few hours has moved below that trend line  (and 61.8%) and stay below (bearish). 




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AUD/USD extends decline to 1% on stronger dollar, softer risk tones

AUD/USD falls to a session low of 0.6271

AUD/USD H1 21-04

The dollar is continuing to push gains on the day, rising to session highs as we look towards North American trading in a couple of hours.

AUD/USD has fallen to a low of 0.6271 and is closing in on near-term support around 0.6267-70 currently. That coincides with last week's lows as well as the 38.2 retracement level of the recent swing move higher from just under 0.6000.

A break below that will open up a bit of a slippery slope in the pair with further support only seen closer to 0.6200 before we track towards 0.6000 potentially.

Risk aversion is the name of the game today and the drop in oil prices isn't really helping with the risk mood in European trading. The DAX is down by 2.8% currently with US futures also down by more than 1% on the day as well.

That in turn is helping with the dollar appetite and is also pressuring the aussie lower.



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The USDJPY trades between the higher and lower extremes

Trend lines moving averages are the defining support and resistance levels

The USDJPY is higher on the day after a run up in the Asian session. However the pair is also confined by trend lines and moving averages on both the topside and bottom side.

Trend lines moving averages are the defining support and resistance levels_

Looking at the hourly chart above, the high price today stalled against a topside trend line. That trend line currently comes in at 107.91. Just above that is the falling 200 hour moving average at 107.942.

On the downside, the early Asian session saw the price move above its 100 hour moving average (blue line).  The fall from the high today stalled ahead of that moving average currently at 107.535.  Below that moving average is a rising trend line at 107.443. Those two levels will need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.

The pair trades closer to the higher extreme at 107.81 currently.  Until there is a shove one way or the other, I would guess that traders should look to lean against the extreme technical levels on tests with stops on breaks with momentum.



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AUD/USD buyers aiming for last week's high as dollar slips on the session

AUD/USD rises to a three-day high, just under 0.6400

AUD/USD H1 20-04

Buyers are extending the move in the pair higher as the dollar eases on the session, with price now climbing and holding a break above the 100-hour MA (red line) as well as the near-term trendline support at around 0.6370.

Price is also taking a peek above the Friday high of 0.6384 with buyers aiming for the 0.6400 handle and a possible retest of last week's high @ 0.6445 next.

The market continues to remain in a mixed mood with European stocks trading more tepid while US futures are still lower by around 0.8% on the day currently.

Treasury yields are also keeping slightly softer, but that isn't really working to the dollar's advantage this time around to start the new week.

As such, I'm not really sold on this move just yet but you can't ignore the technicals as well. The near-term chart in EUR/USD will be a key one to watch for dollar sentiment as price tests the key hourly moving averages on the run higher now.

Back to AUD/USD, the break in near-term technical levels is also helping to give the pair a push higher so watch out for the high last week if the 0.6400 handle gives way.

As for sellers, they have much work to do in trying to drive price back under the key hourly moving averages - especially the 200-hour MA (blue line), which held last week.



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EUR/USD pares losses as dollar gains fall flat on the day

The choppy trading in the dollar continues

EUR/USD H1 20-04

EUR/USD is now paring back earlier losses, rebounding from a low of 1.0841 to 1.0875 currently, as the greenback gives up gains on the day.

The dollar is also losing ground against the aussie and kiwi, with AUD/USD rising to 0.6380 while NZD/USD is at 0.6065 at the moment - both trading higher against the dollar.

That said, the ranges for the day are still relatively modest with little material extension as of yet. The risk mood remains tepid with European stocks having seen its earlier gains pared for the most part while US futures remain about 0.9% lower.

For EUR/USD, there is some minor resistance around 1.0880-90 but the key level to watch in any upside turn will be the 100 (red line) and 200-hour MAs (blue line), which are trading at 1.0897 and 1.0905 respectively now.



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Italian bonds fall further to start the week

Italy 10-year yields rise to near 1.90%, up by more than 10 bps today

This will be a key spot to watch in the coming days/weeks in case we do see yet another potential intervention by the ECB in the market. The PEPP launched helped to tighten the spread in bond yields initially, but the effect is slowly wearing off:

Italy Germany yields

The spread between 10-year Bund and BTP yields is now back up to 238 bps today.



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